Direct and Indirect Eeects (first Draft, Comments Welcome)
نویسنده
چکیده
The direct eeect of one event on another can be deened and measured by holding constant all intermediate variables between the two. Indirect eeects present conceptual and practical diiculties (in nonlinear models), because they cannot be isolated by holding certain variables constant. This paper shows that it is nevertheless possible to deene the eeect transmitted through a given set of paths without blocking the remaining paths. This permits the assessment of a more representative type of direct and indirect eeects, one that is applicable in both linear and nonlinear models. The paper establishes conditions under which such assessments can be estimated consistently from experimental and nonexperimental data, and thus extends path-analytic techniques to nonlinear and nonparametric models. We also provide a policy-related interpretation of indirect eeects.
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